Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. ~$m:j
];
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, "-g5$v$de
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. <J-. ,:
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. # aIV\G
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. =jvL2ps <
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. r;GA QH}j_
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. co{i ~['u
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. cq}i)y
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. /g$8JL
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds iVA=D&eZ
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. U+:Mu]97
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. JN3&(t
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper e)aH7Jj#
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. b Zu2.?{
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. i&0Zli
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. , D\}DJ`)C
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. fk\hrVP
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— p/KG{-f,
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. Gk!CU"`sP
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, fhmBKeFdV
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. eOJ_L]y-
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." p+16*f9,^
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 @*iT%p_L
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 'W/ AYF ^5
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 mX G W+
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 C^*}* hYk$
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 C@ "l"
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 B*n_
VBd
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 f! J?n]
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 wc?YzXP+
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 2D 4c|R@+
? D{M& >.
借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， IY}{ 1[<N
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 p?sFX$S
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 q1Ehl
S
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 NUX$)c
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 l|fb;Giq=D
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 ltOsl-OpR
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 z
9~|Su
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 O]G3 l0
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— Z%QU5.
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 LNF|mS\+D
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， dI~{0)s
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 ]~\%ANoi
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 3mT 6HGSKR
