Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. fYlqaO4[
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, ( +(bw4V/
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. 9[h8Dy
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. s1p< F,
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. *S'?u_ Y7
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. d3NER} f4V
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. lXXWQ=
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. !\\OMAf7
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. t v
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A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds 2\CZ"a#[
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. zKThM#.Wa
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. B?ipo,2~{
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper L;fz7? _j
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. Yn>FSq^Wp-
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. !ZY1AhGZ
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. O6ltGtF
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. n!U1cB{
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— IiV]lxiE]
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. _~;K ]
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, X$eR RSW
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. XII'
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"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." TJ|do`fw >
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 ES)_X:\X?V
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 8v6AfTo%
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 Fe2t[y:8h
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 0CI\Yd=
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 Th4}$)yrkN
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 l0E]#ra"
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 vnqLcNB
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这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 (W#^- *$R
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 H- eHX3c7
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， [}5mi?v
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 '@ 1C$0tx
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 >|mZu)HIY;
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 3~Ll<8fv
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 GyfKSj;
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 <Vh }d/
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 BY@l:y4
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 W *2P+H%
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— EIF
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 V /RV, K1/
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， k&npC8oA
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 z Ece>=C
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 lkJe7 +s
