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2023-07-21 20:25 |
2024全国医学博士英语作文预测:新冠病毒和市场动荡
Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. 6y1\ar(A The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, mF|KjX~s vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. }ijQ*ECdl For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. S D{ )Sq But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. 2H0BNrYM Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. EU>`
$M&w- It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. esQ$.L The resilience of such strategies could be tested. Ej
5_d A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. yjMN>L' A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds kd\Hj~* and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. w=n(2M56C The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. tq3Rc}
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper h.F=Fhx/1 has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. MpGG}J[y But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. rUmP_ If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. lw[c+F7 Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. o|xZ?#^h Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— VN`fZ5*d~ been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. v=0G&x=/ A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, ]d@>vzCO says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. V+y"L>K "We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." {7@*cBqN 首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 /]5*;kO` 衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 {srxc4R` 在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 -fmJkI 例如,当波动性较低时,它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 w4Df?)Z 但当它上升并保持在高位时,一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票,这就造成了更大的波动。 3Cc#{X-+ 一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 c$71~|-[ 至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 5TB6QLPEwY 这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 ow{. iv\,u 更令人担忧的是信贷市场,尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 S6JXi>n ? )Hmf=eoc 借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司, e]1Zey 同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 /OzoeIt 上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末,当时引发了恐慌性抛售,并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 9 %4:eTcp 到目前为止,投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 ^PezV5( 已扩大至4.3个百分点,其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心,但不必恐慌。 ?SElJ?Z 根据彭博社报道,新的发行已经停止——到2月26日,华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 3u$1W@T( 如果这种情况持续下去,将出现企业流动性紧缩。 J:glJ'4E 降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 6{HCF-cQd 过去,美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— Wu/#}Bw# 曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 ,:A;4 法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前, 9tPRQM7 市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 ChG7>4:\ “除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化,否则在几周内, 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 {DQ%fneN4
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