Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. :JOF!Q
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, jKtbGVZ 7r
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. _[.`QW~
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. *f,EDSN1@d
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. Dl7#h,GTc<
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. N
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It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. Gz
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The resilience of such strategies could be tested. ,H |V\\
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. \oaO7w,:"
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds ^c/.D*J [I
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. JWEqy+,Fjw
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. M,7v}[Tbl
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper uRp-yu[nt%
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. p! Hpq W
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. T[c
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If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. &OsJnkY<<
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. Y>IEB,w
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— ]r| X[9
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. 38rC;
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A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, g#:?Ay-m
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. aLG6y Vtu
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." P0|V1,)
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 2 x t
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衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 `2}Mz9m
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在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 lNqYpyvy*
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 <Azv VSA,
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 `n$pR8TZ_
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 }ob#LC,
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 x a ??OT`(
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 C#+
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更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 ([^1gG+>J
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， Il ,2^54q
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 iJT_*,P^
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 7"FsW3an
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 1@egAo)
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 H)ud ?vB6
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 nd}[X[ay
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 jEo)#j];`<
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 M2l0x @|
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— k+t?EZ6L
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 i z.J._&
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， ;p)RMRMg
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 Zi/ tax9C
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 jJml[iC
