Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. H8zK$!
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, _LUhZlw
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. ~'H]jN
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. _|\~q[ep
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. EHIF>@TZ
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. qzLPw*;
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. #ut
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. Jk11fn;\>
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. qu@~g cE
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds t]g-CW3
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. A_ZY=jP
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. 9Cp-qA%t
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper |?xN\O^#}
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. G]tn i
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. ^Za-`8#`L
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. |\t-g"~sN
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. b<ZIWfs
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— uEP*iPLD@
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. ^j7Vt2-
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, A#<? 4&
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. .},'~NM]
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." h0f; F@I
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 EwT"uL*V;
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 fu ,}1Mq#
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 $G+@_'
例如,当波动性较低时,它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 (D&3G;0
tK
但当它上升并保持在高位时,一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票,这就造成了更大的波动。 )[IC?U:5I
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 H;LViP2K*
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 7"x;~X
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 xml7Uarc
更令人担忧的是信贷市场,尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 KqJs?Won
? 9>/4W.
借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司, 9T9!kb
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 Y=I'czg
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末,当时引发了恐慌性抛售,并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 fOGFq1D
到目前为止,投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 mdDOvm:&
已扩大至4.3个百分点,其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心,但不必恐慌。 'KL0@l
根据彭博社报道,新的发行已经停止——到2月26日,华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 "m8^zg hL
如果这种情况持续下去,将出现企业流动性紧缩。 ~jk|4`I?T
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 9:|{6_Y
过去,美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— ZJJY8k `
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 lgy<?LI\
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前, ^
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市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 "+nRGEs6
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化,否则在几周内, 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 4e7-0}0