Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. 1a{r1([)
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, h L [ eA
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. mi Q*enZi
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. *{fs{gFw9
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. TK\3mrEI
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. Wmcd{MOS
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. *1
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The resilience of such strategies could be tested. [I4M K%YQ
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. T&]-p:mg^
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds 6 V0Ayxg7
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. IV. })8
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. \uPzj_kU6
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper Fk 3(( n=
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. ,*6K3/kW
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. YQG
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If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. 9!Mh (KtQ
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. o(jLirnk
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— e~lFjr]
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. m#RJRuZ|2V
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, 2'S&%Uy P
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. <>\|hno}
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." BkXv4|UE
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 " V]*
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衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 ;(`bP
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 K)Lo Z^x0)
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 hTn"/|_SW
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 L4/ns@e
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 St%x \[D
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 T/P\j0hR
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 AEyD?^?
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 Zio ! j%G
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， c%do NY9Q
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 }=bzUA`C
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 :
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到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 @9 S ::
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 vm+3!s:u
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 .2@T|WD!Ah
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 s|<n7 =J
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 {"Sv~L|J;
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— ?{TWsuP7
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 +j <WP
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， .Bl:hk\
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 i`F5
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 aY a`ex
