Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. s>{\
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The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, %
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vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. X'xnJtk
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. _! ?a9
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. (SA^ > r
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. 3XncEdy_
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. ^t `0ul]c
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. [LV> z
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. L_M(Lj
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds [<jU$93E
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. 8RS@Y
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The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. Fg R9$ is+
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper u! t<2`:h
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. ih : XC
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. J M;WCV%NM
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. oS<*\!&D
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. [&lH[:Y#
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— >^ E*7Bfp
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. j&q% @%Gm
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, +.-mqtM
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. N).'>
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." RxVZn""
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 ss`Sl$
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 %Y9CZRY 9
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 HK VtO%&
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 :4r*Jju<V
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 oFsV0 {x%)
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 |w5,%#AeO$
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 hUEA)c
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 wR"17z7[]
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 dZ4c!3'F
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， YdN]Tqc
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 ~
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上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 s&XL {FE
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 b Rr3:"=sE
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 I__ a}|T%
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 e%IbM E]x
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 m ^w{:\p
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 TIK'A<
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— {]$ )dz5
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 ,hm &]
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， B&<P >AZ
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。
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“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 g Mp' S
